Prominent crypto investor and co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp Bitcoin, Jesse Myers, believes the apex cryptocurrency will only hit the $100,000 mark after its block subsidy halving event in April 2024 and not before.
Sharing his thoughts on X (formerly Twitter), the author of the Bitcoin newsletter “Once-in-a-species” said the crypto market would only price in on the halving 12-18 months later.
Bitcoin Will Reach Its All-Time-High Only After Halving
Every four years, Bitcoin goes through a cycle where the reward for successfully mining a block on the Bitcoin network is cut in half for every 210,000 blocks mined. The procedure was written into Bitcoin’s mining algorithm to reduce inflationary pressure and maintain the asset’s scarcity. At present, the mining reward is 6.25 BTC ($170,000) per block mined, which will be reduced to 3.125 BTC per block in the first of half next year when the Bitcoin network reaches its block threshold.
Although many experts are expecting Bitcoin prices to rise leading up to the halving, Myers is in the notion that the markets will bear out the implications once the halving has happened. He also criticized the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF) – a theory in financial economics that states market prices will always reflect the readily available information of a given asset – for being wrong.
Various market analysis shows that Bitcoin’s price performance a year before the halving event always follow a similar pattern. Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital explained on X that BTC price tends to retrace early on leading up to the halving, but soon after, the price recovers and conducts a rally to a new all-time high without turning back.
Myers’s views are in contrast to other forecasts that predict how Bitcoin prices will evolve in the coming months and post-halving. Market cyclist Cole Garner believes that Bitcoin could enter a “full bull” cycle in October under two circumstances: if whales (large hodlers) and fishes (small hodlers) continue to accumulate more BTC without selling their stash, or the markets continue to close above Bitcoin’s 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Meanwhile, veteran analyst Philip Swift warns investors not to dismiss the chance of Bitcoin returning to the $20,000 level in the coming months. TechDev, another popular crypto analyst, says BTC will see a “parabolic top” closer to the 2024 block subsidy halving.
Robert Kiyosaki, the billionaire entrepreneur and author of the best-selling novel “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” predicts Bitcoin to hit $100,000. He also warned that if the stock and bond market crashes or leading global economies enter a recession, then BTC prices could go as far as $1,000,000.
Past Halving Cycles Had Similar Price-Gain Pattern
By analyzing past Bitcoin’s price cycles, it comes to view that most of the digital asset’s cycle gains occur post-halving rather than in the lead-up to the event. During the last three halvings – 2012, 2016, and 2020, it took a maximum of 240 days (accumulation phase) for BTC to hit a new all-time high, according to data shared by trading firm Stockmoney Lizards.
While sharing their thoughts on X, Stockmoney Lizards stated that the event was “all very predictable” and said the new all-time high will occur shortly after Bitcoin halving in 2024.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $29,114.83 – down 0.8% in the last 24 hours.